By Martin Graham
Not long ago, the battle at the foot of the Premier League table seemed settled. West Ham United, Wolverhampton Wanderersi Burnley looked destined for the Championship as the campaign moved into its final stages.
The first weeks of 2026 have altered this mood. A handful of results have injected belief into previously relegated clubs, although the maths still looks daunting for those in the bottom positions.
West Ham, in particular, have shown renewed life. A single win in 10 outings before the New Year gave way to a morale-boosting FA Cup tie against Queens Park Rangers on January 11, followed by league successes against Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland. Those results closed the gap on 17th-placed Nottingham Forest to six points, despite a late setback at Chelsea.
Burnley’s recent draws with Liverpool and Tottenham hinted at resilience, but a heavy loss at Sunderland on Monday kept them firmly rooted at the bottom, 11 points from safety. Meanwhile, Wolves still look destined for relegation, although a modest improvement has at least moved them away from the Premier League’s lowest points return record.
History offers little comfort to those who pursue security
Past seasons suggest how difficult it is to escape once trouble escalates. In 33 completed Premier League campaigns since 1992, only nine teams have managed to overturn a deficit of six points or more after reaching the 23-match mark.
Aston Villa in 2019-20, Leicester City in 2014-15 and Sunderland in 2013-14 are the most recent examples, each recovering from a seven-point deficit. Their achievements underscore the enormity of the task now facing this season’s wrestlers.
Statistical models underscore this challenge. After the latest round of fixtures, Wolves were given a survival probability of just 0.02%, with Burnley slightly higher at 2.02%. In comparison, West Ham fare better, but their prospects still stand at just 17.06%.
An upcoming clash with Burnley offers the Hammers a chance to build more belief. After exceeding expectations in recent weeks, they are starting to look like a team that plays without fear, aware that little is expected but much is still possible.
Mid-table anxiety extends beyond the drop zone
The battle is not limited to the current three basses. In fact, seven clubs remain in danger as the season enters its final stretch.
Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, Crystal Palacei Tottenham Hotspur they all hover within reach of danger. Spurs are top of this group in 14th place, with 29 points after a spirited comeback draw against Manchester City on Sunday.
That result moved Thomas Frank’s side nine points clear of West Ham with 14 games remaining. Still, their recent record tells its own story, with just three points taken from their previous five league games before facing City.
Elsewhere, Crystal Palace look particularly vulnerable. The Eagles are without a win in 12 games in all competitions, following the sale of captain Marc Guehi to Manchester City and with manager Oliver Glasner set to leave at the end of the season.
Forest sit closest to the relegation zone, six points ahead of West Ham and level with Leeds in 16th. With momentum shifting and pressure mounting, the closing months promise a tense fight where survival may depend on thin margins.
