How do bumpy greens affect PGA Tour pros? Here’s what the data says

It’s a common talking point in West Coast Swing: as the day gets later, the greens get rougher.

This is thanks to Poa annua grass, which has a reputation for becoming cloudier and more unpredictable later in the day due to rapid afternoon grass growth and seed production. With Poa greens in play at Torrey Pines this week – plus two more stops on the upcoming trip, in Pebble Beach and Riviera — We examine the data to determine if putting on the PGA Tour really gets harder as the day progresses.

The math behind bumpy greens

We looked at more than 9,000 official rounds tracked by the Tour’s ShotLink technology at those three courses over the past 10 seasons. Across the board, putt rates from different distances decrease for players with later tee times. Take the five- to 10-foot putt: for players who tee off before 9 a.m. local time, the winning rate over the past decade is 52.3%. From 9 a.m. to 11 a.m., this number drops with just one touch, to 52.2%. From noon to 2 p.m., she sits at 50%.

Because the players claim the weekend later times tee basically make more putts than their competition, let’s isolate that data to just Rounds 1 and 2. On 4-8 foot putts, players tee off before 9 a.m., make local 64.9% of their paws. In the group from 11:00 to 14:00, this number falls to 61.5%.

A reduction of 3.4% It may seem trivial, but the lines between success and failure are thin in professional golf. That differential represents the gap in production rate from 4 to 8 feet on the 8th-toughest course on Tour by that metric in 2025 (Sedgefield Country Club) and the 25th-toughest (Country Club of Jackson).

Which of these places is most affected by the progress of the day? When dividing the times into two blocks, the early risers in Riv have the most distinct advantage. Over the past decade, players who tee off before 10 a.m. local time do 3.4% more shots from 4 to 8 feet than their counterparts who get up after that time. The differences for Torrey Pines South (-0.3%) and Pebble Beach (-2.3%) are narrower.

Players who have finished in the top 10 in those three tournaments in the last 10 years – Open Farmers InsuranceAT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational — have done 70.4% of their paws from 4 to 8 feet that week. Players who finished outside the top-10 went solo 63.3%. One putt – or hit on the green – can make that difference.

What do you say? hits won? Does golf’s most comprehensive putting metric reflect the trend, and if so, how significant might the change be?

Again, from an analytical perspective, the Riviera is the most affected of the three courses. The difference in strokes gained per round is just over a tenth of a stroke when comparing players over the past decade who have teed off before and after 10am local time. For Riv, that number has almost doubled – an average difference of two-tenths of a stroke per round played.

Which players in recent years have performed better in these countries? A handful of elite players have benefited from the struggles of their peers.

MAX HOMA

Perhaps it’s to be expected with his West Coast roots, but Max Homa has been one of the most consistent players on these Poa surfaces throughout his career. His +0.77 strokes gained per round in the Riviera-Pebble-Torrey triumvirate is the best among players with 20 or more rounds since 2020. In his two wins in that stretch — the 2021 Genesis Invitational and the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open — Homa averaged 1.31 rounds.

The numbers are even more impressive when the data spans a full decade. Homa is averaging just 0.36 three-pointers per round, the fourth-fewest among eligible players since 2016. His 28.3 percent win rate from 10 to 20 feet is also eighth-best in that span.

Homa has hit 73.3% of his shots from 4 to 8 feet on these courses over the past six years, fifth-highest among qualified players. In 2025, Homa was actually better from that range in these traditionally tougher setups (71.1%) than he was the rest of the season (62.8%).

COLLIN MORIKAWA

When Collin Morikawa won his second major at the 2021 Open, he was the first player to do so in eight or fewer career starts since Bobby Jones. Appraisals seemingly cover every square inch of Morikawa’s resume, but if there’s one aspect of his game that has earned criticism to date, it’s what he puts on. Over the past six PGA Tour seasons, he has ranked outside the 110-ball mark in strokes gained five times.

However, this changes significantly when Morikawa sets foot on familiar West Coast soil. As of 2020, he is making 1.97 putts of 10 feet or more per round at the trio of venues in question, the second-highest rate of any player. He also ranks among the leaders in putting from 10 to 20 feet (4th) and average putt feet per round (7th). It has helped him to top-three finishes at Riviera (2022) and Torrey Pines (2023).

MAVERICK McNEALY

Fittingly, a former Stanford star joins a pair of Cal Bears. Maverick McNealy ranks 2nd since 2020 in average putts per round at these three courses (78’2″). He ranks 5th in strokes gained per round (+0.70) and 12th in 10-to-20-footer (29.1%) at these places makes sense “29.1%) in these three seasons. The best finishes on the PGA Tour have come in California.

WYNDHAM CLARK

In the third round of his victory at Pebble Beach two years ago, it looked like Wyndham Clarke he made every shot he saw. On a wet Saturday, Clark rolled a stunning 189-foot, 9-inch putt on his way to a 60, his lowest score yet on Tour. He nailed four pars of at least 24 feet on the front nine that day alone.

Over the course of Clark’s career, though, it’s not just the long ones that have come his way in California. His 61.3% win rate from 5 to 10 feet on those three West Coast courses is the fourth-best of any player since 2020. Clark earned a 2.26-over par in his two measured rounds at The American Express last week en route to a T13 finish.