This is a short article with a simple point to make.
Scottie Scheffler, a winner BACK last Sunday at American Express, is playing, to put it mildly, phenomenal golf. It’s definitely the best golf we’ve seen since Tiger.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. He is not Tiger. Not even close.
Scheffler is doing some special things
Comparisons between the two have grown since Scheffler became the second-youngest (and second-fastest) to reach 20 PGA Tour victories, all of which have come in his last 81 starts. Amazingly, Scheffler was winless in his first 70 starts.
I’m no math whiz, but that means he won about a quarter of the time since his first win, a ridiculous rate.
His drowning in ranking no. 1 is also outstanding. The average OWGR score difference between Scheffler at No. 1 and Rory McIlroy at No. 2 is currently the same as the difference between McIlroy and a guy named Kyungnam Kang, which is ranked 677th.
Scheffler is entering his 142nd consecutive week at No. 1. It’s mathematically impossible for him to relinquish that spot anytime in the next two months.
At 29, Scheffler is definitely on his way to existence among the best players who ever lived.
But Tiger’s record surpasses that by a huge margin
I go on record, for your consideration, this career wins chart from our friends at Data Golf. Tiger is the purple line and Scheffler is the red line.
Holy mother of pearl! Through 151 starts (which Scheffler just finished), Woods had already won 38 times. That’s more than 25 percent of all his starts.
Scheffler, with his slow start, has won just 13 percent of the time.
That’s a pretty big gap here.
Now, let’s double the amount of starts to 302. Tiger, incredibly, won 78 times in that span, which is good for a total winning percentage of 25.8 percent.
That means Scheffler would have to win 58 more times in the next 151 starts. That amount of starts works out to roughly seven seasons of golf, so we’re talking about eight wins a season.
At the rate Scheffler has been gobbling up wins, that’s entirely possible. But he will still have to play in this one unbelievable level (and maybe even better) in the long term, avoiding damage.
If you consider the degree, Tiger had 10 degrees before the age of 30. Scheffler has four degrees and turns 30 this June.
And remember that choke on world number 1? Scheffler is alone halfway through to Tiger’s record 281 consecutive weeks at No. 1 (it should be noted that Tiger also had a isolated streak of 264 weeks at the top).
Now let’s take a look at Strokes Gained, which is simply a measure of how good each player was against their competition. The number reflects how many strokes they beat the field per round.
That’s closer than career wins, but Tiger still crushes Scottie.
Through 151 starts, Tiger won 2.78 strokes per round. Scottie wins 2.17 strokes per round.
It’s within the same neighborhood, but not exactly within shouting distance.
A couple warns about all this
While Tiger’s greatness is in a completely different category than Scheffler’s, there are a few points worth noting.
One is the era in which they played. Woods dominated in an era where equipment was less advanced so it was probably easier to distance himself from the pack. Modern amenities bring everyone closer together, so it’s impressive that Scheffler can share as much as it does.
The other is longevity. Woods was sublime for about 15 years, but then fell off a cliff due to injuries.
Let’s say Scheffler plays at a more consistent (and still productive) pace until he turns 45, another 15 years of golf.
He would only need about four wins on the year to reach Tiger’s career mark of 82 wins.
Scheffler can also win a major in three-quarters of those 15 seasons and catch Woods in the major wins category.
So while it’s likely that Scheffler will never shine like Tiger once did, his career accomplishments are still within the realm of possibility.
That, in itself, is amazing.
Main photo caption: Scheffler has a ways to go before reaching Tiger’s records. (GETTY IMAGES/David Cannon)
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