By Martin Graham
The first few months of the Premier League campaign have brought an unexpected development: goals created through open play have fallen dramatically, while shots taken from set pieces have increased.
Through the first 11 games, teams have scored 39 fewer goals in fluid attacking sequences compared to the same point last year. At the same time, there have been an additional 26 goals coming from corners, free kicks and spot kicks. The overall return is 13 ends less.
The descent goes beyond the targets. Teams have attempted 370 fewer open-play attempts than at this stage last season.
However, despite the increase in set-piece scoring, the volume of shots taken from set-piece routines (excluding penalties) has only increased by two, which highlights how efficiently teams are converting these chances.
What the numbers reveal about goal trends
The 301 goals scored in 110 games works out to an average of 2.74 per game. That number would mark the lowest production in five seasons if held, with only the 2020-21 average of 2.69 falling.
The open ended game tells an even more amazing story. The 196 goals scored in the game comes to just 1.78 per game, a rate that is on pace to be the lowest since 2009-10, when the average was 1.76.
That same 2009–10 season remains the only Premier League campaign in which non-penalty set-piece goals occurred more often than the current rate of 0.77 per game, which now sits just short of the all-time high of 0.79.
Teams setting up the shift
Some teams have contributed more noticeably than others to the drop in open play. Wolves they illustrate the most dramatic drop, contributing just four such goals, 10 fewer than at this point last season.
Elsewhere, most of the shortfall comes from London. Five of the capital’s seven clubs have provided at least five fewer goals from open play, although much of that reflects their unusually explosive finish early last season rather than a major collapse in creativity this time around.
Manchester City stand out as a rare exception. Almost all of his 23 goals have come from open-play situations, with only one coming from another source.
Comparing promoted clubs with the teams they replaced also shows interesting contrasts. Sunderlandwho reached the play-offs, have scored three more goals in open play than Southampton during the same stretch of their relegation season.
When the focus shifts to the set-piece start, without the penalties, arsenal i Chelsea show the most pronounced increases. Each team has made up for scoring five fewer goals in open play by producing the same number from set pieces.
Manchester United They have also doubled the number of set pieces compared to the 11-game period before Ruben Amorim’s arrival. Sunderland once again outperform the team they replaced by scoring more in similar situations.
The city, meanwhile, continues to move against the general pattern. They have scored three fewer goals from set pieces than last season Nottingham Forest see a similar reduction, likely a consequence of changes in focus.
What this might mean for the rest of the season
The statistics show that six teams — Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham — exemplify the wider move towards fewer goals from open play and a greater reliance on set pieces. Manchester City remain the only club to operate the other way around, scoring more often in open play and less often from set-piece routines.
It remains to be seen if this tactical bent persists or if teams rediscover the fluidity and imagination that fuels the open game scoreboard. The coming months will reveal whether the Premier League continues down this path or returns to a freer style.
