Blake Snell pitches for the San Francisco Giants CCed by Liscense 2.0
New San Francisco lefty Blake Snell is having an exceptionally odd 2024 MLB season. If you asked any Giants fan what they thought of Blake Snell between April and June, the answers were filled with disappointment. Snell signed a 2-year, $62 million contract at the end of March 2024, about as late as you can sign with a team before the start of the regular season. Separately, earlier piece Written by yours truly highlighted Snell’s tendency to start the season poorly, evidenced by his 11.57 ERA in his first 11.2 innings with the Giants. However, like every year of Snell’s career, Blake was able to turn things around in the second half. But this time, Snell seems to have risen to a level he’s never seen before.
The 31-year-old southpaw went into the ninth inning for the first time in his career in his first pitch at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. On August 2, Snell also struck out 114 batters on 114 pitches. Snell’s high ceiling has always been limited by him handing out free passes to players. Tonight against the Redskins wasn’t much different with Snell’s three walks. It didn’t matter much because Snell was dominant on another level. His 11 strikeouts were nothing compared to the start he had five days ago. On July 27, Snell took the mound against the Colorado Rockies and started striking out 15 batters in just six innings. His 15 K’s in 6.0 IP was something that had never been done before in MLB history.
Blake Snell has never had an ERA over 3.50 in the second half of any season in his career. This is especially impressive in 2020, as only 60 games have been played in that limited season. So far in 2024, Snell is having his best season by ERA since 2018 in the second half. In 33.1 innings, Snell has a 1.35 ERA with 49 strikeouts. Hitters are slashing .110/.192/.193 against Snell. A triple, sub-200 hit streak is something not many pitchers can say they’ve had at any point in their careers. The numbers make sense given how much power Snell has had since the All-Star break. In fact, since July 9, Snell has a 0.55 ERA and 41 strikeouts. But what do advanced metrics do? percentages what would you say about Snell’s success?
Snell’s percentages are excellent. Perhaps most impressive are his expected stats. He lands in the 97th percentile for expected ERA and 98th for expected batting average. Some other notables are his 98th in WHIP, 95th in slugging percentage, 98th in Hard-Hit% and 91st in average exit velocity. Simply put, when Snell was able to stretch, he was among the best pitchers in the game. His expected stats also back up his success, proving that there is almost no luck involved in his stellar output on the mound.
So what does this mean for Blake Snell moving forward? Well, teams are well aware of the anomaly that is Blake Snell in the first half. The problem was on full display this year, and many fans believe it was the left-hander’s lack of Spring Training. The Giants tried to get him the work he needed in a few AAA starts, but those were only made while Snell was recovering from injury. For the most part, the timing of Snell’s signing combined with the Giants’ decision to immediately throw him into the fire at the major league level cost him some terrible games and additional losses for the team as a whole. If Snell opts out after this season, the best course of action would be to sign him early and get him a ton of work in the early spring. The fact that he’s starting seasons the way he does will provide more incentive for teams to sign him early in the offseason signing process.
With the Giants opting not to trade Snell at this year’s deadline, they will ride the highs of Snell’s spectacular season to reach the postseason for the first time since 2021. This team and its rotation have a chance to go a little further. run to clinch a Wildcard spot for themselves. Logan Webb, Blake Snell and Robbie Ray are three pitchers no team will want to face in a three-game Wildcard series. The baseball world saw what happened last year when the Arizona Diamondbacks made the World Series a Wildcard team, so simply making the playoffs should be the top priority for this SF team. It’s hard to remember a polarizing pitcher like Blake Snell has between the middle of MLB seasons. Fortunately for the Giants, they’re right in the playoff race with a second half of Snell throwing no-hitters, setting hitting records and making opponents look silly every five days.
