“It’s a really difficult moment, one of the most difficult moments in Manchester United’s history and we have to deal with it honestly,” Ruben Amorim commented after the Red Devils slumped to a fourth successive defeat in all competitions.
Opening 30 minutes from Man Utd’s 2-0 loss to Newcastle capping off a miserable 2024 was as punishing as we’ve seen at Old Trafford in the mess of 11-and-a-half years since Fergie.
A 64-year-old midfield pivot huffed and puffed as the majestic Magpies pivot combined endlessly in front of slow veterans to facilitate an early strike.
Stability came once Kobbie Mainoo entered the fray, but United’s fate was sealed once Amorim picked his team.
The new head coach’s task was seismic upon arrival, but very few would have had a relegation piece on their bingo card in 2024/25. Two months after taking the job, Amorim has said it is “very clear” that United are in a dogfight.
After Ipswich Town secured their first home win of the season against Chelsea, United now sit just seven points clear of the relegation zone. They’re a woeful side seemingly not improving under one of the continent’s hottest managerial properties, but the Red Devils are surely not set for their first relegation since 1974, are they?
This is Manchester United we’re talking about here.
Despite its decline and short-term prospects, to choose suggests that the real chances of United being relegated to the Championship this season are slim.
In the last 10,000 simulations carried out by their supercomputer, the Red Devils were relegated on just 15 occasions (0.15%).
They’ve amassed 22 points at the halfway point of the 2024/25 campaign and are on course for 44 points at the current rate, but that run falls slightly short when you assess their record under Amorim. United have 0.88 points per game with the Portuguese manager in charge, which would see them finish the season with 39 points.
Any haul would comfortably be United’s worst in Premier League history. 59 points in 2021/22 was their lowest performance entering 2024/25.
According to the official Premier League websiteteams usually avoid relegation if they get 36 points, but there have been six instances in a 38-match season of clubs relegated to the second tier with 39 or more points accumulated. The last time it happened was Blackpool in 2010/11. Teams have been relegated after far poorer Premier League seasons in more recent times. Last season, for example, 18th-placed Luton Town managed 26 points.
Relegation may be highly unlikely, but the fact that we’re even having this discussion mid-season is a stark indictment of United’s worsening slump. to choose he projects Amorim’s side to finish in the bottom 12 when all is said and done, but a busy January could swallow the whole project.
Southampton visit Old Trafford on January 16aiming to throw United into a state of utter desperation.
