Hunter Gaddis for Cleveland Guardians, CC by Liscense 2.0
When the Rangers were a perennial playoff team in the mid-to-late 2010s, they had some offensive firepower, but their strength usually came from the starting game. Corey Kluber won the Cy Young in 2017 (and was a finalist in 2016 and 2018), Shane Bieber won the award in 2020, Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco received Cy Young votes, and Andrew Miller a season and a half introduced by ERA. under 1.50 out of the bullpen with the team. However, the rotation is 22nd in the league in ERA this season and has struggled a lot; Shane Bieber only pitched 12 innings before being lost for the season, and many of their young pitchers have struggled to make the jump. Despite that, they lead the league in bullpen ERA, mostly behind breakout players. This is a big reason why the Rangers currently lead the AL Central and are in prime position to return to the playoffs. Let’s take a look at three of their breakthroughs this season.
Stats: 58.2 IP, 3.14 pCRA, 25.5% K%, 5.6% BB%, 4.1% Barrel%, 36.7% GB%, 30.3% CSW%, 12.8% SwStr%, 25.4% Whiff%
Through 2024, Hunter Gaddis pitched 49.1 career innings to a 6.57 ERA. He’s down to 1.38 this season. The right-handed pitch mix includes a slider, which he throws 43.1% of the time, a four-seam fastball, which he throws 40.4% of the time, and a changeup, which he throws 16.6% of the time. the He’s in the 71st percentile in strikeout rate and the 58th percentile in strikeout rate, both of which are very good, but the swing-and-miss game isn’t his bread and butter. Rather, his effectiveness comes from his ability to limit free bases and mitigate quality contact, as he ranks in the 85th percentile in walk rate and 94th percentile in barrel rate. The barrel rate is something I would expect to see a drop, as he is in the 49th percentile in hard hit rate, 59th percentile in average exit velocity, and 20th percentile in groundout rate. Usually, pitchers who give up hard contact but have low barrel velocity are able to get there because most of their hard contact comes on the ground, which is not the case with Gaddis. His home run fly ball rate is 2.9%, well below the league average of 10%, indicating that he is likely due to negative regression.
Looking at his slider, the pitch is thrown harder than average and has 39% more sweep than sliders thrown at the same velocity. It doesn’t cause swings and misses at an elite rate, posting a 32.1% Whiff%. However, the 3.9% BB% and 3.1% Barrel% are elite. The resulting fastball profile is similar to the slider, posting a below-average 19.1% whiff rate, but a 7.7% walk rate and 7.0% barrel rate, both of which are above average. His changeup is the most interesting because it has 30% more horizontal break than a pitch with the same speed, extension and release. It’s his least thrown pitch, and he throws it mostly to left-handed hitters (73.6% vs. LHH, 26.4% vs. RHH). It was good against left-handed hitters (2.77 pCRA, 0.0% Barrel%, 30.5% CSW%, 28.6% Whiff%) but hitless against right-handed hitters (-1.11 pCRA, 0.0% Barrel%, 32.4% CSW%, 32.4% CSW %, 41.7% Whiff%). It’s a small sample size, but if it proves to be sustainable, he could take his game to the next level by increasing his use of the pitch against right-handed hitters and using it as a down pitch.
Stats: 51.0 IP, 4.16 pCRA, 25.0% K%, 11.0% BB%, 7.2% Barrel%, 49.6% GB%, 31.6% CSW%, 13.1% SwStr%, 28.3% Whiff%
After pitching 27.2 innings in his major league debut last season, the left-hander has been out this season. Herrin’s repertoire is dominated by velocity as he throws a curveball 37.0%, a slider 26.3%, a four-seam fastball 24.1% and a sinker 12.6% ball He has a good swing and miss game, 66th percentile in strikeout rate and 74th percentile in velocity, and is effective at limiting quality contact, posting a 90th percentile average exit velocity, 60th percentile barrel velocity, 81st percentile stiffness. strikeout rate and 82nd percentile groundball rate. Like many relievers, however, he struggles with walks as he is in the 13th percentile.
Looking at pitches individually, all of Herrin’s pitches have above-average velocity. His curveball is his best pitch, posting a 1.71 pCRA. In addition to having above-average speed, the pitch has 23% more horizontal break than average. It’s an elite contact control pitch with a 2.4% barrel% and an average exit velocity of 82.4 MPH. He throws a pitch in the low zone, and while his strikeout rate is slightly below average, his 40.1% whiff rate is high enough to make up for it. However, his slider and four-seam fastball are both below-average pitches. The slider gets a little below-average velocity whiff, but the real problem is that it gets crushed in the zone, as evidenced by the 16.1% barrel rate. His fastball has above-average spin, but 13% less than average vertical break. It handles contact well (8.3% Barrel, 63.9% GB%) but doesn’t get whiffs (14.0% Whiff%).
His sinker, thrown primarily to left-handed hitters, has a 20% above-average drop rate. It is elite at controlling contact (0.0% barrel, 85.5 EV) and producing ground balls (81.3% GB%). He also zones it well and gets a high rate of pitches called. I think Herrin’s problem is that when he’s down 3-0 or 3-1, especially against right-handed hitters, he’ll try to throw his slider or four-seam fastball, both of his pitches with the highest zone rates. However, his inability to throw them for strikes in those situations kills the walk rate of both pitches (12.2% walk for slider, 18.5% for fastball). My suggestion is to throw the sinker in these situations to try to play either a called strike or a loose ball.
Stats: 60.0 IP, 2.80 pCRA, 35.5% K%, 6.5% BB%, 6.9% Barrel%, 47.3% GB%, 33.8% CSW%, 14.8% SwStr%, 30.6% Whiff%
Cade Smith has been one of the biggest breakouts this season, being not only one of the best relievers in this bullpen, but one of the best in all of baseball. He doesn’t have elite movement or spin on any of his pitches, but all of his pitches benefit from his 98th percentile extension. Smith’s fastball, which he throws 67.6% of the time, is his bread and butter pitch. It has an elite 30.5% stun rate and generates ground balls at a high rate of 41.7%. The pitch does get hit hard, but since most of the hard contact comes on the ground, the 8.3% barrel rate is a bit above average. He controls the field well, as evidenced by his 63.7% zone rate. He uses it as his primary two-strike pitch, throwing it 65.1% of the time in two-strike situations, and the result was a 40.4% strikeout rate. The pitch has performed particularly well against lefties, especially from a swing-and-miss perspective. He throws it up and in, and that has resulted in a 39.9% CSW% and a 34.7% Whiff%.
In addition to his fastball, Smith also throws a splitter and a sweeper. Both pitches have slightly below-average velocity, but make up for it with good contact control. The splitter complements the fastball well, and it’s not elite in the way we usually think of splitters, as it only has a 29.9% pitch rate, which is a bit surprising considering it’s above average. high movement and speed. However, it has a 2.9% barrel rate and a 55.9% groundball rate, with the barrel rate in particular being elite. He uses his sweeper primarily against right-handed hitters, and like the splitter, the 30.3% whiff rate is average, but his contact quality control is elite (0.0% barrel, 70.0% GB%). He has good command of the pitch, belting it at an above-average 50.0% rate, but I think that also limits the number of whiffs. The fastball is elite, and his game will always play up due to the extension, but I wonder if the lack of an elite swing-and-miss velocity pitch will lower his ceiling.
As of this writing, the Guardians have seven relievers with ERAs under 3.00. Reliever ERA is one of the most volatile numbers from year to year, but the Guardians are able to consistently produce quality arms year after year. Emmanuel Claeys has been one of the best relievers in baseball for several years now, so I wanted to highlight their other arms. While their offense has had some playmakers, how far this team can go in the postseason will be determined by whether or not they can close out many 2-1 or 3-2 ballgames. To do that, they’ll need their bullpen to step up in key situations, and luckily, they just have the arms to do it.
Stats via Alex Chamberlain, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs
