November still has its icy grip around the calendar, the festive rush of matches hasn’t even started and the yellow ball is safely locked away. But the Premier League title may already be decided.
Liverpool’s Victory by 3-2 at Southampton on Sunday afternoon, along with the Manchester City clash Defeat by 4-0 against Tottenham Hotspur a day earlier, it opened an eight-point gap at the top of the Premier League. After 12 games last season, eight points separated the top seven.
Arne Slot is don’t get carried away. As the Dutch manager was quick to point out, Arsenal had an eight-point lead over Manchester City in April 2023 and still conspired to finish second that year. But what does cold logic do? to choose‘s supercomputer say about Liverpool’s chances of going all the way?
Using a combination of betting market odds and of Opta at home power ranking system, the statistics provider simulates each remaining match 10,000 times to provide a prediction for the Premier League final table. In more than three-quarters (76%) of these results, Liverpool lift the title of the first vol.
the red ones the season started as third favourites, considerably adrift of the defenders Manchester City and consecutive runners-up arsenal. However, a streak of five consecutive defeats, including three in the Premier League – has left Pep Guardiola’s team with only a 15.4% chance of winning a fifth consecutive title.
The convincing nature of City’s defeats against Bournemouth, Sporting CP, Brighton and Tottenham (twice) has seen the club’s statistical ranking take a major hit. For the first time in 624 days, City were not ranked as the best team in the world to choose after the dismal defeat to Spurs on Saturday.
Arsenal managed to get out of their own crisis, put Nottingham Forest to the sword in a rare return to fluency at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday. The Gunners are just one point behind City but are half as likely to win the title (7.7%).
Chelsea they have exactly the same record as their London rivals. Enzo Maresca’s expensive team walked towards one easy win over Leicester City to start the weekend and bolster their outside chances of an unlikely Premier League title.
Tottenham, Newcastle and surprise package Brighton they are the only other club in the division with a non-zero chance of finishing first. The seagulls are tied at points with arsenal i Chelseacementing the club’s best start to a top-flight campaign with a 2-1 win over Bournemouth on Saturday.
The traveling fans serenaded their players with chants about a return to European football, but coach Fabian Hurzeler paid no heed to any such talk. “I don’t listen for them to sing whatever they want,” he sniffed. If their team continues to play through the season, Brighton fans can begin to sing of even bigger ambitions than Champions League qualification.
|
classification |
team |
Probability of winning the Premier League |
|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Liverpool |
76.0% |
|
2. |
Man City |
15.4% |
|
3. |
arsenal |
7.7% |
|
4. |
Chelsea |
0.6% |
|
5= |
Tottenham |
0.1% |
|
5= |
Brighton |
0.1% |
|
5= |
Newcastle |
0.1% |
