5 picks that our gambling expert likes

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting. You can follow him on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the RSM Classic, which begins Thursday at St. Simons. Along with Kannon’s recommended shows, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app featuring Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win money and prizes with every round and tournament.

Fall is over and so can your PGA Tour card.

Yes, it is RSM Classic this week on the island of St. Simons, Georgia at Sea Island Resort, and is the final event of the FedEx Cup fall season. Players who find themselves outside the top 125 in the FedEx Cup Fall Rankings at the conclusion of this week’s tournament will not receive fully exempt status on Tour in 2025.

Here are the players, in current order, on either side of the bubble. Sami Valimaki is not on the field this week at the RSM Classic.

120 – David Skinns
121 – Sami Valimaki
122 – Sam Ryder
123 – Zac Blair
124 – Joel Dahmen
125 – Wesley Bryan
126 – Henrik Norlander
127 – Daniel Berger
128 – Hayden Springer
129 – Pierceson Coody
130 – SH Chem

From a handicapping perspective, it is interesting to note that two weeks ago, Austin Eckroat it was your winner at the Tech World Championship – and he was already completely ruled out for 2025 going into the tournament, sitting in the top-50 in the rankings. He had no extra pressure to perform. Last week in Bermuda, Rafael Campos entered the week ranked No. 147 in the rankings. He was definitely playing with added drive and urgency. The point is, we can do our best to play the sidekick, but it’s hard to prevent motivation, mentality, pressure, etc. Of course, there are situations that often seem somewhat obvious and have stood the test of time historically in handicapping, but here specifically Trying to predict the performance of golfers in a given week based solely on where they sit in the Cup standings FedEx is not reliable.

That doesn’t mean I don’t take it into account when we reach these points in a golf season. No, I don’t ignore it, but it’s like a must-win game in NFL Football. Just because a team needs to win, doesn’t mean it will. I often say, if you “must win” you shouldn’t be that good. No one would be in such a situation if they were really good. So to believe that a player who is ranked 128th in this week’s rankings will suddenly flip a switch and play much better in order to get into the top 125 is not where I want to base my handicap. mine.

The foundation of my handicap will start with the golf course and what skill sets will be most important for success. Here at Sea Island, we have two courses, Plantation course AND Course by the sea. Each player will play the Plantation Course once, either on Thursday or Friday, and the Coastal Course will host three of the four rounds. They are both short, par-70 courses of just over 7,000 yards. The Plantation course usually plays about a stroke and a half easier than the Coastal course. I actually played the Coastal Course and without any wind the course plays relatively easy. The fairways are wide by tournament standards, but placement and driving accuracy have proven to be a key ingredient here at St. Simons. I also looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Greens in Regulation Gained, Birdies or Better Gained, Par 4s measuring between 400-450 yards, Proximity to the hole from 100-175 yards and Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass).

For subsequent courses, it’s very similar to last week at Port Royal: a shorter track, coastal, Bermudagrass, etc. Last week we used Pebble beach, Colonial BCand Waialae CC. I used those courses again, Port Royal, and also TPC South Wind, El Cardonal in DiamanteAND Harbor cityhome of the RBC Heritage.

It’s also worth noting that a significant number of players on the field this week either live in the Sea Island area, practice here regularly or went to school nearby. After all, there are a number of players this week who are extremely familiar with this property.

If you came here looking for who will finish second this week, you’ve come to the right place as we’ve had runners up two weeks in a row now in Carson Young and Andrew Novak. Let’s see if we can end the season with a better one.

At the time of writing, I have yet to see the pairings for the tournament. I recommend taking a look at them when they are released as it can matter in terms of wind and a potential draw bias. Right now, it looks like the wind will blow all day Thursday in the 20 mph neighborhood. It’s supposed to die down on Friday, but probably more in the afternoon than in the morning. Just a guess, but an early start on Thursday on the easier Plantation course might be the ideal draw.

Seamus Power (34-1)

It’s been a very good autumn swing for Power, who has two finishes of 11th, one 13th and was 23rd last week in Bermuda, a tournament he won in 2022. His last event of the summer was the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, one of our affiliated courses, where he finished 10th. Here at the RSM Classic, he has gone 5-4 in his last two visits. He also finished third at Waialae (Sony Open) and sixth at Harbor Town. Shorter, coastal, more precision based courses seem to be in his wheelhouse. Over the last 36 rounds, the Power has been really solid, ranking inside the top 40 or better in every stat I considered this week.

Justin Lower (50-1)

We talked earlier about motivation and the mindset of obstacles. Lower it was emotional a few weeks ago at the podium and talked about the fact that it is very difficult for a PGA Tour player and that the new rules are making it even more difficult. That seems to have inspired him as he went on to finish runner-up that week in Los Cabos and followed that up with a fifth-place finish last week in Bermuda. I will continue to ride the hot hand here. He is an excellent wedge player, one of the best on the field from 100-150 yards, makes a ton of birdies and is the no. 1 in last 36 rounds on 400-450 yard Par 4s. He also ranks 29th on Tour in SG: Putting.

Matt Kuchar (60-1)

Kuchar is kind of like the original Seamus Power-slash-Justin-Lower-type player. Doesn’t hit it far, hits it straight, magical short game, great shot, etc. He’s won at Harbor Town, he’s won at Waialae, multiple top-10 finishes at Colonial. He is exactly the type of player we would expect to be successful on this type of golf course. And oh, by the way, he also calls the St. Simons at home, so he is quite familiar with this golf course. Current form also looks good as Kuchar has grabbed four top-15s in his last seven starts.

Daniel Berger (70-1)

We’ll give him one more shot and it could be the last shot for a minute as he’s currently sitting on the outside looking in at 127th in the FedEx Cup fall standings. Again, we’ve talked about this and I’m not basing my entire handicap on Berger needing to play well to get to 125th or better, but I like the fact that he’s a proven veteran with experience in pressure cookers like major championships. , Ryder Cups and Tour wins. This doesn’t hurt. But everything else makes sense too. He’s won at Colonial, he’s won at Pebble Beach, he’s won twice at TPC Southwind, and between Harbor Town and Waialae, he has three top-15 finishes and two top-10s. If the putter cooperates this week, he should have a good time, and Bermudagrass has always been his best surface.

Michael Kim (75-1)

Kim’s only Tour win came at the 2018 John Deere Classic — another shorter-type course with a wet course — somewhat similar to what we have here. And I like his last three starts, finishing fifth, 30th and 12th last week at Port Royal. Over the past 36 rounds, Kim is 18th in the field for Greens in Regulation Gained, 16th for SG: Approach and is 23rd in Birdies or Better Gained. He has been sixth at Colonial, 20th at Waialae and 11th at Pebble Beach.

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