Ken Griffey Jr. swings away, CC shot by Liscense 2.0
As my fellow writer detailed Article by Perry NadroBaseball Savant’s new bat tracking data has added an incredible tool to the repertoires of analysts, writers and everyday fans of the game when it comes to dissecting the league’s best and worst hitters. If you don’t fall into one of those categories, or if you do but haven’t yet delved into the world of bat tracking data, then I recommend you take a look. Perry’s piece so you don’t miss reading this one. These new measurements allowed us to confirm long-debated ideas about how hitters generate swing power. Additionally, it shows why some strikes are better than others at making contact with the baseball, as the metrics quantify how quickly the strike can move the bat through the zone, as well as how long the barrel of the bat is. in the zone. In this article, I’m going to test some of those theories and see if the new data at my disposal supports or undermines them.
It has long been argued that lefties have longer and flatter swings than their righties. Most baseball fans, especially the older ones, immediately think of the sweet-swinging Ken Griffey Jr. when asked to think of a left-hander. The Swingman had a really long swing because he could create tremendous separation, opening up his left elbow, which created twice as much room for him to belt his arms and get the barrel to the ball. On the other hand, another famous lefty in Ichiro Suzuki had an incredibly short and straight swing that made him one of the greatest contact hitters the game has ever seen, striking out 4,367 in professional baseball between Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Japan. Baseball in the USA. Comparing these two world-class players immediately makes us question whether the old adage about the length of the lefty swing is true. Let’s see if new data from Baseball Savant can settle the argument. Right off the bat (pun intended), we see that the average swing length in MLB for lefties is 7.2 feet from the start of the swing when the batter holds the bat behind the head to make contact in front of the plate. However, we also see that the average swing length for right-handed hitters is 7.4 feet, 0.2 feet longer than the average left-hand swing. What about power hitters vs. contact hitters for both arm sets? Well, we know that longer swings usually produce higher velocity because the barrel accelerates through the swing for a longer period of time, which means the hitter releases more energy. We also know that shorter, straighter swings are better at making contact with the ball because they allow the hitter to get their barrel down the pitch faster. So for this analysis, we’ll assume that hitters with above-average swing lengths will have a more power-oriented approach, and vice versa for those with below-average lengths. In doing so, we find that the group of left-handed power hitters still has a shorter average swing length than right-handed power hitters, at 7.5 and 7.7 feet, respectively. The same is true once again for contact hitters, with righties leading lefties by 7.2 to 6.9 feet. All around, right-handed batters have longer swings on average than their left-handed counterparts, completely debunking this myth. However, by grouping the two main swing types most common in our game today, I was intrigued. Are there players capable of producing both types of swings?
The two-strike approach is a classic example of the clash between traditional baseball strategy and the new age, analytically driven strategy. In the past, hitters were taught to choke the bat, shorten their swing, and protect the strike zone by fouling pitches that didn’t necessarily land well, but were close enough to be called strikes. This was considered the best way to prevent the hit, which was the biggest problem for the hitter in the era of small ball and contact offense. However, many professional hitters these days are encouraged to remove their A-swing from the count regardless. This is supposed to create more value in the long run, given the increased probability of an extra base hit at the expense of an equally high strikeout probability. However, even in today’s game, not all hitters are Joey Gallo or Giancarlo Stanton, which begs the question. which hitters slow down and shorten their swings in consideration, or vice versa? To answer this question, we will group the possible numbers a hitter can face into 3 buckets. Early counts are counts where neither the hitter nor the pitcher has a clear advantage yet. These counts are 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, and 1-1, and usually see an even mix of aggressive and passive approaches from hitters. Behind the calculations are the calculations of where the pitcher is following in a count where hitters are usually more aggressive because the pitcher is more likely to throw strikes. These include 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1. Finally, Finish counts are the counts where the pitcher can finish the batter leaves with one pitch. In short, any two-strike count other than 3-2 we won’t use in this analysis because it has the unique status of being both a Trailing and an Ending count. For context, I’ll start by noting that the average bat speed and swing length in the early count for all hitters are 71.8 MPH and 7.4 feet. The averages for back calculations are 72.7 MPH and 7.4 feet. The final counts see predictable changes in their averages, dropping to 70.2 MPH and 7.3 feet. Right off the bat, we can see that the two-strike approach is very much present in today’s game, as hitters drop an average of 1.6 MPH in the Front-to-End count, and 2.5 MPH in the Back-to-End count. Surprisingly, though, hitters didn’t seem to shorten their swings as much when they moved into the Finish Counts, although there were some outs. Jose Caballero of the Tampa Bay Rays had the biggest change in bat speed from Early and Back Counts to Finish Counts. Caballero slowed his bat down a whopping 4 MPH going from Tomorrow to Over in the Count, and an even bigger 6.9 MPH from Back to End, as shown in the graph below.
This should mean that Caballero is elite in the 2 hit count in contact and avoids the hit. Unfortunately, no, not really at all, as Caballero falls in the bottom 15th percentile in Whiff%, K%, and Contact%.
In this interesting graphic provided by A baseball savantwe can really see the variety of swings that Caballero can take based on the peak number of swings for each bat speed value. This graphic is an incredible way to visualize the idea that many hitters have not just one swing, but multiple swings, almost like a toolbox, for different pitches and situations in the game. When it comes to swing length changes, a more familiar name tops the leaderboard. Willie Castro has a pretty average length swing early in the count, but as he gets deeper into at bats, he focuses on putting the ball in play.
As shown in the chart above, Castro shortens his swing by a whopping 0.4 feet when he goes from Tomorrow to Over in the countdown, and 0.2 feet when he goes from Tomorrow to Back in the countdown. Castro still struggles to avoid K-ing as he falls into the bottom 34th percentile in K%.
Based on the results we’ve seen from both Willy Castro and Jose Caballero, it’s hard to say that slowing down the swing and shortening the path of the bat really makes much of a difference in preventing strikeouts. However, these are the 2 most extreme strokes when it comes to this strategy, and a deeper dive would be necessary to draw a more definite conclusion.
As with any good scientific experiment, we ended our analysis with more questions than we started with. Why do righties have longer swings than lefties, and why was the opposite believed for so long? Does the two-stroke approach really help reduce strikeouts? And if so, what is the perfect combination of reduced bat speed and swing length to maximize contact? The good news is that with the new bat tracking data available to us, all of these questions can be answered, and I can’t wait to dive deeper and learn more about the intricacies of this great game.
