7 picks our gambling expert likes this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the 2026 Masters, which starts on Thursday.

We have arrived. It’s official Master’s week.

The tournament, the golf course, the tradition, nothing needs an introduction. The Masters is the only one of the four diplomas that is organized in the same place every year. Even casual golfers are accustomed to spring in the air, dogwoods swaying in the breeze and azaleas blooming along the course of Rae’s Creek. All are signs that Augusta National is taking center stage in the golf world for the first major of the new season. Indeed, a tradition unlike any other.

So let’s get down to the nitty-gritty and see if we can figure out who will win this year and slip into the most prestigious green jacket in sports history.

Augusta National Golf Club has always favored the big player. We remember when the course was extended considerably 20-plus years ago in an effort to “Tiger-proof” it. The extension project has continued in recent years, and the Par 72 layout now stretches to nearly 7,600 yards. The fairways are wide, rarely allow for a flat lie, have a large elevation change, and are bordered by a first and second cut that aren’t particularly penal.

The greens are large, lightning fast, Bentgrass surfaces that feature plenty of undulation. Lose a putting green and find the mowed molded areas surrounding the putting surfaces that will test one’s creativity and grasping ability to the max.

Driving accuracy isn’t as important as distance this week, but positioning yourself in the right areas of the fairways is essential to establishing a favorable approach shot that will allow you to find the right quadrant of the green.

Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around the Green have proven to be perhaps the two most important areas of the game that translate to success at the Masters. After that, we get into the 450-500 yard Par 4s, Strokes Gained: Putting on some of the fastest and most difficult greens in the world, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Par 5 Scoring. Taking advantage of the Par 5s at Augusta is almost a must if one plans to contend. They are the only set of holes on the course that average below par. After that, I also looked at Bogey Avoidance and 3-Putt Avoidance, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and finally, Hole Proximity from 200+ yards.

In other words, hit it long, have a surgeon’s touch on and around the green, and do everything else in between at an elite level. Easy deal, right? Our friend, Jeff Sherman ( @GolfOdds ), has this week’s Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook winning score proposition wagered at Under/Over 275.5, which translates to 12.5 under par. Over the last 12 editions of the Masters, the average winning score is just a touch better than 11.5 under par.

Scoring conditions look fairly favorable with high temperatures expected in the mid-70s and mid-80s, very little wind and not much chance of any moisture – and here comes the hard part. Good, dry conditions and warm weather could make this golf course stronger and faster as the week begins.

The Masters is what we golf handicappers refer to as a very “sticky” tournament, meaning that players who play well here tend to “climb” up the leaderboards year after year. The course form is incredibly strong here, and so is the experience. Generally, over the years, it takes about six trips to this tournament to crack the code and win. We also find incredibly strong correlations with several other golf courses. Riviera (Genesis Invitational), Kapalua Plantation Course (Sentry) and the Old Course at St. Andrew’s are probably the strongest pointers to Masters success for me – but I think you can also throw in Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) and Memorial Park (Texas Children’s Houston Open). There’s enough connective tissue here that it can help hold someone back in the field. Course Form (Course History) + Linked course success probably means more here than they might elsewhere, period.

three weeks ago, we published my article “Early Bets”. for Masters 2026. Since then I have added another selection and will give the latest updates for the rest.

Cameron Young (28-1)

The Players Championship is my last and final pick for outright winners at this year’s Masters. I made this play on April 1st, when he had dropped from 30-1 to 28 here in Las Vegas at Circa Sports, where he is now trading at 19-1. Young checks all the boxes on the course form and list of related courses. He has two top-10 finishes at the Masters and was runner-up at both the Riviera and St. Louis. Andrew’s. Interestingly enough, your last two Masters champions, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, were also Players Championship winners in the same season. Young’s last three starts leading up to Augusta have resulted in 7-3-1 finishes. We last saw him at The Players, where he ranked first in scrimmage, third in approach, 13th off the tee and was seventh in putting at TPC Sawgrass.

Here are the other six selections previously noted.

Collin Morikawa (30-1)

I did this show in early March after Morikawa won at Pebble Beach and raced at Bay Hill. It was the following week that he withdrew from the Players with a back injury. I still believe he will be good to play, but we are not sure. On Monday, Morikawa described his situation as “day-to-day.” He said his back feels good, but the way the rest of his body is handling it, he still doesn’t feel 100%. I still believe he has a great shot to win, but the truth is, it’s a real possibility he won’t complete 72 holes.

Hideki Matsuyama (39-1)

I have seen this price drop to 20-1 this week after being in the 30’s for months. Matsuyama has won at Riviera and Kapalua, and of course, he won here in 2021. I liked how he fared last week at the Valero Texas Open, where he ranked ninth in the field for approach, seventh in greens in regulation, 10th in driving accuracy and third off the tee. The game off the tee is where Matsuyama had leaked oil. It’s a great sign to see how he drove it last week.

Patrick Reed (46-1)

That price dropped quite a bit and is now rising again. In the neighborhood of 40-1 it feels right. Reed’s last start was at the Joburg Open in South Africa, where he finished 10th. He shot all four rounds in the 60’s.

Jordan Spieth (60-1)

It was hard to find this price when I got it back in early March, and now we’re seeing Spieth priced in the 40s, which I think is about right. 50-1 feels too high. Less than 40-1 seems too low. Despite finishing 63rd last week at the Valero Texas Open, I feel good about the way Spieth played. He ranked 12th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, fifth in driving accuracy and ninth in hitting. I said it in our early betting column: a top-15 finish seems reasonable. With a little Magnolia Lane Magic, Spieth could be ready to do it again.

Min Woo Lee (80-1)

This price has really come down. Now I’m seeing Lee trading in the 30’s and I understand why. He’s got that game. He’s especially long off the tee, he ranks second on Tour in Par 5 Scoring and has a terrific short game. The man really has the tools. As they say, it may not be “if” but rather “when.” His last five starts have seen him go 2-12-6-32-3. At third in Houston, where he won in 2025, Lee ranked seventh in field goals, 11th in hitting and 25th in hitting.

Adam Scott (125-1)

This price is similar to Reed and Morikawa in that it has risen quite a bit over the past month and has continued to move this week. I think 80-1 is about the right price for the 45-year-old Australian and 2013 Masters champion. Scott was in second place going into the final round of the US Open at Oakmont last summer before the weather turned poor. He finished fourth at the Riviera this season, a place he has won twice. He was 11th in his next start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scott is ranked third on Tour this season in the approach. He is 25th in the race and 17th in 5 points. Similar to Spieth, that would be something, but I believe he has a legitimate shot at grabbing his second green jacket.