6 picks that our gambling expert likes

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting. You can follow him on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for American Express, which starts Thursday in La Quinta, California. Along with Kannon’s recommended shows, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app featuring Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win money and prizes with every round and tournament.

After its traditional two-week start in the Hawaiian Islands, the 2025 PGA Tour season returns to the mainland for the start of the West Coast Swing. First stop: La Quinta, California, for American Express.

American Express is played on three different golf courses: Nicklaus Tour Course at PGA West, La Quinta Country ClubAND stadium course at PGA West. Each player will play one round on each of the three courses before a 54-hole cut is made. Sunday’s final round is held at the stadium course. Nick Dunlap is your reigning champion, winning last year as an amateur, the first player to do so on Tour in 33 years.

It really is the ultimate challenge of the tourist course. Pin positions will be very good. There is little or no rough bordering the freeways. Oddly enough, in the middle of the desert, water is the main hazard as approximately 20 holes over the three fairways have water in play. The golf courses are relatively short. The Stadium Course is just over 7,200 yards, the Nicklaus Course is just under 7,200 and La Quinta CC is just over 7,000 yards.

High temperatures are expected to be in the low 70s, and none of the four days call for winds above 10 mph. Yes folks, looks like we’re in for another bird party in Palm Springs. The winning score proposition here in Las Vegas in the Westgate SuperBook is Under/Over 259.5 (28.5 Under Ppr).

In terms of predictability, we go from two very predictable tournaments in Hawaii to a complete mess here in Southern California. ShotLink data is only available on the stadium course, so we’re not getting many stats for 50 percent of the action. Four of the last six winners here have been at triple-digit odds. Dunlap, last year, was a 500-1 long shot. I was thinking about this the other day: Have I had an outright winner for every Tour tournament in my golf betting career? I’m pretty sure it’s not every event, but it’s close, and I’ve certainly had many close encounters, if not a winner, in certain places. Here at American Express, however, I don’t even recall many close calls. It’s really difficult to understand – and therefore, I recommend reducing the risk this week. I have my straight winner picks, and this is likely to be it. I’m not playing any finish position markets and will probably stay away from any head-to-head matchups.

However, that doesn’t mean I haven’t hindered the field. Of course, the stats I believe are most important this week are Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdies or Better Gained, Par 5 Scoring, Par 4 Scoring, Good Drives Gained, and SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). Pretty basic stuff. Find fairways, hit greens, make putts.

Looking at each of the three golf courses this week, I came away with a handful that were similarly set: approach-heavy, in favor of driving distance, and nothing to speak of in terms of accuracy or the short game. around the greenery. That led me to Corales Golf Club, where they play the Corales Puntacana Championship, Valhalla, site of last year’s PGA Championship, TPC Scottsdale, TPC Summerlin, and Silverado in Napa, where they play the Procore Championship during the FedEx fall.

One more note. Fifteen of the last 17 American Express winners have played at least one week in Hawaii before. I’m definitely a believer in having at least a few rounds of competitive stock under one’s belt that helps with success here, versus a player’s first start of the season.

Kurt Kitayama (30-1)

The UNLV standout is definitely familiar with desert-style golf, and he’s recorded top-10 finishes at TPC Scottsdale and TPC Summerlin. He played last week at the Sony Open, shooting three rounds in the 60s and finishing tied for 37th. Over the past 24 rounds, Kitayama is sixth in the field for SG: Approach and he ranks third for SG: Par 5s. He’s long gone and hits a lot of fair greens. It will come down to the putter, as it often does in a birdie party, and Kitayama was solid with the flat club last week, winning by nearly a stroke on the field at Waialae Country Club.

Tom Kim (31-1)

Interestingly, Kim was a popular choice last week at the Sony Open as one of the pre-tournament favourites, but that is not the case this week and his price has gone into the 30s. This seems like a very good value to me. This is a guy who finished sixth here two years ago and was a back-to-back winner at the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. He also has a top-20 finish at TPC Scottsdale and was 26th last year at the PGA Championship at Valhalla. He ranks one better than Kitayama for fifth in the field in terms of reach over the past 24 rounds. Also like Kitayama, he’ll need to find a hot player if he’s going to make a run this week.

Mac Meissner (80-1)

Now we get into the long shots because like I said earlier, we tend to get random results in this tournament and we tend to see the high priced guys come out on top. Meissner was a player I almost sat down with last week and he played well, finishing 21st at Sony. Apparently I’m not the only one paying attention as I’ve seen a few others on it this week in the desert. Meissner goes one better than Tom Kim, ranking fourth in the field for SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and was second in the field in irons last week. He’s great with wedges, he’s long and straight off the tee, and he’s a good putter. This is only Meissner’s second full season on Tour. He missed the cut here last year, but I like the fact that he’s played this event before, familiar with both the golf courses and the pro-am format.

Jonathan Vegas (90-1)

The big Venezuelan has been on Tour for over a decade now and we saw him win for the fourth time in his career last summer at the 3M Open. In fact, his first Tour win was right here in La Quinta when he was recognized at the Bob Hope Desert Classic in 2011. Since then, he’s finished as high as 11th here at American Express. He has top 10s at Silverado and Scottsdale and was fourth at Corales Puntacana. He started the 2025 Sentry at Kapalua and finished fourth. After all, his long, straight drive has always been the strength of Vegas’ game. Over the last 24 rounds, he also ranks in the top 10 in the field in par 5s and par 4s. We’ll say it again: If he can putt this week, we should have a contender.

Henrik Norlander (150-1)

Like Kitayama, Norlander finished 37th at Sony last week and shot three rounds in the 60s. He is deadly accurate off the tee and was ranked 11th on Tour for SG: Approach last season. He’s very solid in all stats this week, except guess what? Yes, he’s struggled on the green, but he’s finished as high as 12th here at American Express before and also has top-25 finishes at both Corales and TPC Scottsdale.

Matti Schmid (190-1)

Finally we landed on a barrel. Schmid can hit it off the tee, makes a bunch of birdies and was ranked 46th on Tour last year for SG:Putting. He tied for sixth with Tom Kim here at American Express in 2023. He was also third last October at TPC Summerlin and was 11 at Corales in April. He has a lot of talent and has shown some signs of what he can do with it. In a pale field and a birdie party, I feel like 190-1 is too high a price.

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