6 picks our experts love this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the 2026 Cognizant Classic, which begins Thursday in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.

Say goodbye to Pacific coastline, desert golf and Poa Annua and hello to palm trees, water hazards and Bermudagrass. Yes, the West Coast Swing is over and we’re in Florida. The 2026 PGA Tour season begins its Florida Swing at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida for A well-known classicthe first of four straight stops in the Sunshine State.

Coming from two Signature Events and with another one coming up next week at Bay Hill in Orlando, the Cognizant takes a hit up the field strength. Positioned on the schedule as a “tweener” makes for an unlucky but notable off week for the best players in the game.

Not only has this event changed in name (previously known as the Honda Classic), but it has changed dramatically in terms of the difficulty of the golf course. George and Tom Fazio designed PGA National in the early 1980s. Jack Nicklaus was called in to do a redesign in 1990 and has made three or four additional changes since then. For many years, we saw champions barely reach double digits below par. Chris Kirk won in a playoff four seasons ago at age 14. Austin Eckroat won in 2024 at 17 under par and Joe Highsmith is your defending champion, closing at 19 under last year.

One of the most challenging par 4s on Tour, the 10th hole at PGA National was lengthened by 20 yards two years ago and turned into a much more suitable par 5. It’s interesting, but this has really changed things with half a dozen shots or so. Jack Knapp opened last year’s event by shooting a 59. The current iteration is a par 71 that stretches to just over 7,200 yards and is now only considered a Nicklaus design.

Another element that is always a factor here in Palm Beach Gardens is the wind. With water entering 15 of the 18 holes, a good breeze can make things quite difficult. Nicklaus’ closing hole stretch, No. 15 – 17, is known as the “Bear Trap”. Two par 3s and a par 4, all with shots over water. The forecast calls for winds of 10-15 mph. That’s significant – but if it goes any higher, we could see some carnage.

To me, the golf course is all about accuracy, hitting the ball and scrambling around the green. I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Off the Tee and Ball Striking. I looked at Good Drives Gained, Scrambling and Hole Proximity from 125-200 yards. With water all over the place, 60 bunkers with sand and wind, hitting good shots from 150 yards or more – PGA National becomes one of the most challenging places on Tour to do such things.

As for the associated courses, I believe most of it has to do with how Florida plays. Conditions are similar at every swing venue, Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Innisbrook (Valspar), TPC Sawgrass (The Players) and PGA National. I think we see some crossover success with Waialae in Honolulu and also with the last Canadian Open venues, Hamilton, St. George’s and TPC Toronto. Finally, there is a lot of crossover success here at Cognizant with that of the Open Championship. Former Open champions Padraig Harrington and Marc Calcavecchia have each won the event twice. Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Justin Leonard, Rickie Fowler and Todd Hamilton have all won here in Florida and won or played particularly well in the Open. Personally, I believe a lot of this comes down to ball-striking and the ability to play into the wind – both useful when it comes to an Open Championship or the move to Florida.

Daniel Berger (40-1)

Seminole State Florida really kicked off his career here at PGA National when he lost in a playoff as a Tour rookie in 2015. He has finished fourth here twice since then in 2020 and 2022. Berger has always been a good ball hitter, wind player, accurate driver and Bermudagrass specialist. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks eighth in the field for closeness on holes from 150-175 yards. He was sixth earlier this season in Hawaii at Waialae and eighth at the Royal St. Louis Open. George’s in 2021.

Aaron Ray (40-1)

Here’s another very accurate, ball attacking type player who knows his way around windy conditions. Rai finished 14th in Hamilton at the Canadian Open in 2024 and 13th in St. George’s in 2022. He was 19th at Royal St. George’s in 2021 at the Open. In this area, Rai ranks 12th for SG: Approach, seventh in Bogey Avoidance and is No. 1 for Good Drives won during the last 24 rounds.

Haotong Li (49-1)

We tried Li a few weeks ago in Phoenix and came up short, but I’ll go back to him here given his recent form and skill set. He finished eighth and 11th on Tour this season and 10th twice on the DP World Tour to close out 2025. Li is currently eighth on Tour for SG: Tee to Green, 17th in Total Driving and 19th for Scrambling. Li has twice finished in the top 4 at the Open, including last summer at Royal Portrush.

Jordan Smith (60-1)

I’ve always felt that Smith has a lot of upside and I’m glad we’re now seeing him regularly on the PGA Tour, where he currently ranks fifth in Total Driving, sixth in Greens in Regulation and is No. 1 in Ball Striking. He finished 16th a few weeks ago in Phoenix and closed out 2025 on the DP World Tour with 15th-20th-and-21st finishes.

Mackenzie Hughes (62-1)

Enter the Canadian short-game wizard, who is coming off two straight top-35 finishes in Phoenix and two weeks ago at Pebble Beach, where he tied for 17th in the field for Greens in Regulation. Over the past 24 rounds, Hughes ranks second in the field for Scrambling. In the open championship at Royal St. George’s in 2021, Hughes finished sixth. He was runner-up here at Cognizant in 2020 and has finished seventh and 14th at the Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf & Country Club in 2024 and 2019.

Emiliano Grillo (85-1)

It really is a pot of selections this week, so why not an Argentinian? However, Grillo is a ball hitter that really seems to suit Florida golf. He was eighth here at Palm Beach Gardens in 2018, has been eighth and seventh at Bay Hill and 11th at The Players. He missed three cuts in five starts out west, so the move to the southeast could be a much-needed change. Over the last 24 rounds, Grillo ranks 14th in the field in Bogey Avoidance, 13th in Proximity to Holes from 125-150 yards and is seventh in Good Drives Gained. In the open championship, he has finished 12th twice and was sixth in 2023.