6 picks our expert likes

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the 2025 Tech World Cup, which starts Thursday in Mexico. Along with Kannon’s recommended shows, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app featuring free and daily fantasy golf contests where you can win money and prizes with every round and tournament.

We have reached November and that means only in the bottom three FedEx Cup Fall events remain for the 2025 season. We begin this final push in Los Cabos, Mexico, for the World Tech Championship. Next week it’s on to Bermuda for the Bermuda Championships and finally, we end up on the island of St. Simons, Georgia for the RSM Classic. No more breaks in action, no more weeks off in between and maybe no more work next year. When the final shot is held in Georgia in three weeks, players will need to rank in the top-100 in the rankings in order to retain full PGA Tour status in 2026.

First stop: El Cardonal in Diamantea Tiger Woods design that features particularly wide fairways without rough, massive greens. It is a par 72 course that stretches over 7,400 yards. There is noticeable elevation change throughout the layout and plenty of undulations on the greens. As is often the case with tropical, coastal locations, the golf course is wall-to-wall Paspalum grass. For many years, the World Wide Technologies Tour was played in the Riviera Maya, east of Cancun, Mexico. This will be only the third time the championship has been held in Cabo San Lucas at Tiger Country.

I think as we approach “Turkey Day” it’s only fitting that we have a “bird party” – or should I say party? Okay, sorry. Back to golf. Yes, scores should be low this week with not much wind in the forecast. Thursday is expected to be the windiest, but still, forecasting only 10-15 mph. Golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman, at SuperBook in Las Vegas, has the winning odds proposition under/over 262.5, which translates to 25.5 under par. Eric Van Rooyan won this championship two years ago at the age of 27 and last year it was Austin Eckroat who went 24 under par.

With that, I’ve been watching Birdies or Better Gained this week, along with Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and coming up. It’s interesting to note that since these greens are so large, hitting them in regulation isn’t terribly difficult, but when they’re missed, the scramble presents one of the most challenging tests on Tour. I’ve also seen how players fare on long par 4s – those that measure between 450-500 yards.

The related courses this week are quite easy to find. Courses with very wide fairways, Paspalum greens. Kapalua Plantation Course it has some of the widest fairways on Tour and large putting surfaces – although they are Bermudagrass. The same with TPC Craig Ranch. Wide fairways and big greens, but different types of terrain. Vidanta Vallarta, where they play the Mexico Open, is very similar to what we have this week and so on Corales Golf Clubwhere they play the Corales Puntacana Championship in the Dominican Republic. The Grand Reserve, where they play the Puerto Rico Open, is a course based in Paspalum and Black Desert Resort in St. Louis. You get similar fields playing all these events, without the huge star power, but many of the same names continue to appear towards the top of the charts.

I played six games in total. Four of them are triple-digit odds, but I’ve seen a lot of volatility in the market earlier in the week. Si Woo Kim is a WD so that has changed the market a bit too. As always, shop around for the best prices.

Michael Thorbjornsen (24-1)

Since the course designer is from Stanford, why not choose another cardinal to win at El Cardonal? Thorbjornsen has been a very trendy pick for a few seasons now and I’ve avoided diving in for the most part. This might be the first time I’ve bet on him to win, I can’t remember for sure. Anyway, I like the time and place of the meeting this week for him to maybe get that first win which seems to be on the verge of happening sometime very soon. He has a 13th finish and a third place in his last four starts and was second last spring at Corales Puntacana. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks 11th in the field for SG: Off the Tee, is second in approaches, third in Birdies or Better Gained and is no. 1 for Greens in Regulation Gained.

Garrick Higgo (24-1)

The South African lefty, a big hitter who attended UNLV, was one better than Thorbjornsen in winning the Corales Puntacana Championship last April. Prior to that, he was 12th in Puerto Rico and until recently, he has finished in the top 10 in each of his last three starts. Higgo also finished sixth here in Los Cabos last November. He’s very solid in stats, across the board. If he finds a hot shooter for a few days, he should be in the mix once again.

Salinnda Islands (105-1)

Now we’re into the triple digits and I’m going back to another Stanford University link. It’s also worth noting that Salinda is currently 104th in the FedEx Cup rankings, so he’ll need to perform well these last three weeks if he plans to play on Tour in 2026. He finished third at the Mexico Open earlier this season, and two weeks ago in southern Utah, Salinda was ranked 11th in that field: for the week in Te1, S. Greens in Regulation and ranked 17th place for Scrambling. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 10th in the field for SG: Putting (Paspalum).

Matt Schmid (105-1)

Schmid is a big hitter from Germany who will be a regular on the Tour in 2026 and over the past two seasons, he has been at his best on this week’s linked courses. In 2024, he finished 10th in Puerto Rico, 11th in Corales and fifth in Black Desert in Utah. Earlier this season, he was sixth in Puerto Rico and ninth in Corales. Over the past 24 rounds, Schmid ranks sixth in the field for Birdies or Better Gained.

Ben Kohls (115-1)

Over the last 24 rounds, Kohles ranks first in the field for SG: Approach, fourth in Greens in Regulation Won and is 13th for SG: Putting (Paspalum). He finished 20th two weeks ago in Utah, shooting four rounds in the 60s. For the week, he ranked 13th in approach, third in Greens in Regulation and fourth in Driving Accuracy. Last spring, Kohles finished 25th at the Mexico Open and in 2024 he was sixth in Puerto Rico and second at TPC Craig Ranch.

Justin Lower (130-1)

Lower may have the best resume of all on these types of golf courses. In 2024, Lower finished third at Vidanta Vallarta, fourth at Corales Puntacana and was runner-up here in Los Cabos. Over the last 24 rounds, he is eighth in the field for SG: Putting (Paspalum). He found his groove two weeks ago in Black Desert as well, finishing third. And the timing is great for his form to resurface as he currently sits at 110th in the FedEx Cup rankings.

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