6 picks our expert likes

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting. You can follow him on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the Shriners Children’s Open, which begins Thursday in Las Vegas. Along with Kannon’s recommended shows, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app featuring Free-To-play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win money and prizes with every round and tournament.

We’re entering the FedEx Cup fall halfway point as the Tour makes the short trip from Ivins, Utah, to Las Vegas this week for the Shriners Children’s Open, in what will be the fourth of eight events in the fall series.

An interesting twist is the weather here in Las Vegas this week. We’ve had the hottest summer on record in 2024 and the triple digit temperatures really left us about a week ago. Now, suddenly, the forecast for this week at TPC Summerlin calls for highs of 81, 64, 69 and 73 Thursday through Sunday. Winds are expected to reach 20+ mph on Thursday and Friday, while little to no wind is expected on Sunday.

Adjust your handicap accordingly and maybe pack a sweater.

TPC Summerlin is a Bobby Weed design, measuring approximately 7,250 yards and playing as a par 71. Hole no. 3 plays as a shorter par 5 for the membership, but will play as a tough par 4 this week for the pros. Last week, we were at 3,000 feet above sea level. This week, we drop to around 2,700 feet – so there is still some extra distance expected for players this week on what translates to a relatively short course. TPC Summerlin has proven to be, over the years, one of the easiest courses players see on Tour all year.

With that in mind, I looked at Birdies or Better Gained this week. Hitting the jackpot in this tournament has always been about going down. As mentioned earlier, we have a few days where the wind is expected to be a factor, and here at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, the winning Under/Over score is set at 14.5 under par. This is notable because the average winning score over the last eight years is 22 under par – except for 2017 when Patrick Cantlay won with a score of 9 under. That year was a particularly windy one for the Shriners Children’s Open.

I also looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Driving Accuracy. The fairways at TPC Summerlin are very wide. I have played this course personally many times. It’s not particularly hard to find the fairways, but to score, you need to position yourself right off the tee and that’s where the accuracy factor comes into play. I also looked at SG: Approach, Par 4 scoring for those measuring 400-450 yards, Scrambling and SG: Putting (Bentgrass).

As for related courses, it’s worth noting that the combination of Bermudagrass fairways and Bentgrass greens at TPC Summerlin is somewhat rare on Tour, but we also see it at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, at the Charles Challenge. Schwab. I also looked at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu (Sony Open). It’s not necessarily a similar course, but we’ve seen crossover success and Waialae puts a premium on driving precision. Finally, I also considered La Quinta CC (American Express), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage), Memorial Park (Houston Open), and TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson).

Beau Hossler (31-1)

Hossler is often an under-the-radar guy at bird parties and when competing in a field that lacks star power. It was just two weeks ago that he missed a playoff at the Sanderson Farms Championship and followed that up with an 11th-place finish last week in Utah. Hossler has finished seventh here twice, including last year. Over the past 36 rounds, he ranks 20th in the field for Birdies or Better Gained and in SG: Putting (Bentgrass). He’s also ninth in scrambling — and it doesn’t hurt, as a University of Texas Longhorn, that Hossler is familiar with playing in the wind. The form is very good now and I expect it to continue this week.

Cam Davis (36-1)

Like Hossler, Davis also finished seventh here last year, and in fact, he has never missed this tournament. He has also played extremely well at one of our affiliated courses, Detroit Golf Club, where he has won the Rocket Mortgage Classic twice. Being an Australian, he is also well trained in the wind. Davis hasn’t played competitively since the FedEx Cup Playoffs, but he’s one of the best players on the field in history — and in his last start in late August, he finished fifth in The BMW Championship.

Adam Hadwin (41-1)

Accuracy and short game. That combination has worked masterfully for Hadwin on desert golf courses and beyond throughout his career. Here at Summerlin, he has five top-10 finishes including a runner-up finish last year. At the American Express in La Quinta, Calif., Hadwin has four top-six finishes including two runner-up finishes. He lost in a playoff at Rocket Mortgage two seasons ago and also finished seventh in Houston. I can’t help but give him a shot to threaten one more time here.

Harry Hall (44-1)

We were at the Las Vegas native and UNLV Rebel last week in Utah and he wasn’t bad at all until it all came out in the last round. Hall shot 65-69-64 the first three days and was just four shots off the lead before shooting a 74 on Sunday. We’ll give him another go here at a course he’s played hundreds of times, and at a tournament where he’s never missed a cut and has a top-10 and top-15 finish to his credit . As we explained last week, Hall is a fantastic shooter and is a birdie machine. Of course, he’s also very familiar with how to negotiate the wind around these parts.

Patton Kizzire (75-1)

Kizzire is an example of the TPC Summerlin-Waialae CC-Colonial CC link, and I think it speaks to accuracy off the tee and putting. Kizzire has finished fourth and second here in Las Vegas, third at the Colonial and won the Sony Open at Waialae. He has finished top 25 or better multiple times at each of our linked courses this week. He also returned to the winner’s circle just over a month ago, winning the Procore Championship at Silverado in Napa by five strokes. He followed that up with an 11th-place finish at Sanderson Farms and was 43rd last week at the Black Desert Championship. I like the kind of roll he’s on, and now, coming to a place where he’s had success and an organization that should suit him, he should find a lot of comfort.

Lee Hodges (100-1)

This is my long bomb of the week that I just feel has a better punch than the triple digit price tag would indicate. He took eighth last week in Utah, where he was 14th in the field for SG: Off the Tee, sixth for SG: Approach and was eighth in Driving Accuracy. Hodges missed out on a pitch last week with the pitcher, finishing 53rd of the 69 players who made the cut. The ball you hit looks great. He finished third in the American Express. If the player cooperates this week, Hodges should be in the conversation.

Who are Chirp Golf players picking this week?