5 picks our expert likes

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, which begins Thursday in Orlando, Fla.

As the PGA Tour shifts from west to east and the first major championship of the season draws ever closer, a heavy dose of big boy events are currently dominating the tour calendar. of Arnold Palmer’s Invitational IN Bay Hill will mark the third signature event in four weeks – and next week is another one with The Players Championship TPC Sawgrass. Like Riviera two weeks ago, API is another 72-player course that features a 36-hole cut. The top 50 players and ties will come into the weekend, along with anyone sitting within 10 shots of the lead.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge was originally designed by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee, but later became Arnold Palmer’s baby, and as Arnie liked to do, he changed the golf course many times. What we have now feels like a masterpiece: a par 72 course that stretches to nearly 7,500 yards and features relatively narrow fairways and big, firm, fast Bermuda grass greens. This will mark the third consecutive season the tournament has been classified as signature tournament status. It’s very much a Florida-style course with 84 sand, palm, thick, rough bunkers. It is susceptible to extreme winds and nine of the 18 holes feature water hazards that are very much in play.

Of course, much of the agronomy is different at Bay Hill than at Riviera, but what remains the same is that both are rigorous tests of golf that will require a player to do almost everything very well. Both accuracy and distance are needed off the tee. Hitting the ball is crucial, and even though the greens are large, hitting them in regulation is difficult. Rough is especially thick. Hitting around the greens is paramount – and then putting these fast, hard surfaces is a real challenge.

There aren’t necessarily one or two areas of emphasis that lead to success on this golf course, but more than that, every club in the bag needs to shoot at a high level. One particular stat worth noting is the proximity of holes from 200+ yards, as Bay Hill, when including par 3 holes, has more approach shots of this length than any other regular tour stop golf course. So add the long iron game to your long list of needs this week.

Course shape has proven to be a strong indicator here at Bay Hill and so has the success of the Open Championship or links golf. The forecast calls for winds in the 10-15 MPH range with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. For the linked courses this week, I used TPC Scottsdale – Scottie Scheffler being a recent example of a player who has won twice at both venues. I also used TPC Craig Ranch, another venue that is home to a Scheffler win. Finally, from a links perspective, I used the Renaissance Club where they play the Genesis Scottish Open, Royal Portrush (another venue Scheffler has won) and Royal St. George’s, home of the 2021 Open Championship.

Tommy Fleetwood (20-1)

The last time we sat down with the Englishman, he took a comprehensive victory for us at the Tour Championship last August. He has played twice so far on Tour this season, finishing fourth at Pebble Beach and seventh two weeks ago at the Genesis Invitational. He has been 10th here at Bay Hill twice and finished third once. Fleetwood finished runner-up at Royal Portrush in 2019 and has finished fourth and sixth at the Scottish Open. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks third in the field for Scrambling and 13th in Hole Proximity from 200+ yards.

Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1)

Another Englishman who has played great golf this season, Fitzpatrick finished top 10 earlier this year in Phoenix at TPC Scottsdale and ranks fourth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach. Over the past 24 rounds, he’s fourth in the field for closeness to holes from 200+ yards. He has finished ninth, 14th and 22nd here at Bay Hill, 20th and fourth at Royal Portrush and fourth and sixth at the Scottish Open.

Hideki Matsuyama (37-1)

Last time we were in Matsuyama he lost in a playoff in Phoenix to Chris Gotterup. This was his second runner-up finish in Phoenix, a spot he has also won twice. He’s been sixth here at Bay Hill and third at TPC Craig Ranch. Matsuyama ranks second in the field for closeness to holes of 200 yards or more and is the no. 1 on Tour in Scrambling. His kryptonite this season has been overwhelming. If he can find more straights this week, he’ll be tough to beat. Despite missing shots off the tee to start this season, Matsuyama has finished 13-11-2-8-28 in five starts. I have to hope that a week off between starts helped him sort things out with the driver. I believe that when Matsuyama is on his A-game, he is one of the few players in the world who can beat Scheffler and McIlroy.

Robert MacIntyre (58-1)

Like Matsuyama, the Scot really only has one soft spot this season and that is with his approach game. Everything else has been solid and the short game has been great. MacIntyre finished fourth in Hawaii to start the year and was 20th two weeks ago at Riviera. He finished 11th here at Arnie last season and two starts before that, took sixth at Phoenix. His links skills are some of the best in the game, finishing sixth at Royal Portrush in 2019 and seventh last summer. He was eighth at Royal St.

Nicolai Hojgaard (60-1)

Hojgaard was hot last week at the Cognizant Classic over the weekend. After making the cut, he shot 66-65, the lowest total of the weekend on the course, to finish sixth. A few weeks before that, he was third at TPC Scottsdale. He was 14th at the Open Championship at Royal Portrush last July and has finished fourth and sixth at the Scottish Open. Over the last 24 rounds, Hojgaard ranks 15th in the field for SG: Approach, sixth for Driving Distance and is 19th for Proximity to Holes from 200+ yards. He is 10th on Tour for SG: Off the Tee and is 44th in Scrambling.