5 picks our expert likes

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting. You can follow him on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the Presidents Cup, which begins Thursday in Montreal, Canada.

It was on more than a few occasions last golf season that we referred to players who perhaps had additional motivational factors leading up to a particular golf tournament – and in many of those cases, we were talking about wanting to play well enough to to qualify for the Presidents Cup or to catch the eye of their respective team captain.

of LISTS for both international and United States parties were completed through captain’s election three weeks ago and now here we are, ready to begin the biennial tournament at the Royal Montreal Golf Club in Montreal, Canada, the oldest golf course in North America.

Royal Montreal was the site of the 2007 President’s Cup and hosted the RBC Canadian Open in 2014. Canadian Mike Weir captains the international team while Jim Furyk does the honors for the U.S. Many of the players we noticed throughout the season had something extra. to play were Canadians, who wanted to represent the international team playing in their country. Three Canadians are on Weir’s team this week: Corey Conners, Mackenzie Hughes and Taylor Pendrith.

I’ve been wanting to find a way to bet on the big-hitting Canadian international for a while now, with “home field advantage” feeling like it might carry extra weight this week. But the fact is, I haven’t been able to get there. Team USA has each of its 12 players ranked in the top 25 on the OWGR. Internationals only have four of their 12 rankings as such, and perhaps the odds are leaning toward Canadian influence as well, because, frankly, the -250 price in the United States looks cheap.

This will be the 15th edition of the President’s Cup. The USA has dominated the competition, winning the last nine in a row with an overall record of 12-1-1. The golf course is a par 70 that measures just under 7,300 yards. Whether it’s a Ryder Cup or a Presidents Cup, it seems that the American opponent is always trying to negate their power – a characteristic that so many American teams seem to have. I’ve heard that Weir is aiming for a similar golf setup, which favors precision driving with fairways that are bordered by lots of thick and rough penalties.

If you look at the 2014 RBC Canadian Open leaderboard, Tim Clark was your winner. Jim Furyk was runner-up. Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner and Graeme McDowell also finished in the top-10. If that lineup doesn’t scream “driving precision,” I don’t know what does. The problem for internationals here is that you have it Collin MorikawaRussell Henley, Scottie Schefflerand Brian Harman on the US side, all ranked inside the Tour’s top 20 in Driving Accuracy. And Furyk’s experience and success here probably doesn’t hurt either. It’s worth noting that Montreal has seen a lot of rain lately, and the forecast calls for more on Wednesday and Thursday. A wet, soft golf course will keep more balls on the fairway and reduce the demand for pinpoint accuracy from the tip.

I’ve narrowed it down to the three skill sets that I believe will ultimately be the most important on this course, which are Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained: Approach (iron play) and Hitting. Again, the United States is pretty dominant internationally in each of these categories. So how do we bet this contest? I don’t mind putting -250 on the US side, but I’ll see if I can move the needle a bit and get a better price.

USA wins President’s Cup by 4-6 points (+340)

With a total of 30 games scheduled to be played, this winning margin gives us odds of 17-13 in favor of the USA, 18-12, or 17.5 to 12.5 for your winning score.

United States top scorer: Collin Morikawa (+650)

We’ve talked about Morikawa quite a bit this 2024 golf season because he’s certainly been the best undefeated player in the world this year. If there’s anyone on the US side who you’d think would be motivated to make some noise here, you’d think it would be Morikawa. Of course, Scheffler and Schauffele have accomplished so much already this season — Morikawa makes sense to be the one with an even greater hunger for success this week. He also happens to be second on the tour in Driving Accuracy, 10th in Scrambling, and has won putts in nearly every tournament he’s played in April, when his season really took off at the Masters.

Honorable Mention: Sam Burns (+700), because he finished the season pitching so well in his last four starts.

International Top Scorer: Si Woo Kim (+800)

Hideki Matsuyama is the top player on the international squad and is coming off a recent win in Memphis at the FedEx St. Louis Championship. Jew. But I like to move down the board a little further to a player who might be a better fit for this golf course and should see plenty of playing time. This is also part of the handicap: Who will play enough games to reach first place in points? This will be Kim’s third President’s Cup, so Weir knows he has experience. Overall, Kim’s Presidents Cup record is 4-3-0. He ranks 13th in Driving Accuracy on Tour, is 18th for SG: Approach and 22nd in Scrambling.

Honorable Mention: Taylor Pendrith (+1400), because he has been so good lately throughout his best season ever. He may emerge as the local hero this week.

Players to fade: Mackenzie Hughes, Wyndham Clark, Min Woo Lee. Outside of shortstop McKenzie Hughes (Scrambling) these players rank at or near the bottom in our key stats this week.