4 picks that our gambling expert likes

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the 2026 Sony Open, which begins Thursday in Hawaii. Along with Kannon’s recommended shows, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app featuring free and daily fantasy golf contests where you can win money and prizes with every round and tournament.

Here we go again! The 2026 PGA Tour season kicks off this week at Cougry Water Etiquette Club on the island of Oahu. It’s the Sony Open, which serves as golf’s “Opening Day” and kicks things off as usual in the Aloha State.

Due to the drought conditions in West Maui, The Sentry, which is normally the first event of the New Year and the new season, was canceled in October. The good news is Plantation course in Kapalua has returned and apparently conditions are favorable once again. The bad news is that there are rumblings that the Tour may get rid of the two-week Hawaiian swing all together going forward — in an effort to avoid further cross-talk with the NFL. Here’s to hoping they don’t. I don’t think I’m alone in saying that it’s always a great welcome to the new season, battling the cold temperatures in the state and seeing the majestic waters of Hawaii’s crystal blue ocean against the backdrop of the first golf action of the season. If the Masters feels like it always kicks off the spring season, to me, the Hawaii tournaments signal new beginnings, warmth, anticipation, excitement, and that golf has come out of winter hibernation. I’m not sure La Quinta, California, and the American Express tour can hold a candle to that.

But that’s a conversation for another day. Golf in Hawaii is truly upon us in 2026, and it’s time to start picking winners once again. We started last season with a winner in Hideki Matsuyama at The Sentry and finished last year with winners in Tommy Fleetwood at the Tour Championship and Matsuyama again at the Hero World Challenge in December.

Waialae Country Club is a short, tight, tree-lined, par-70 golf course that favors distance accuracy. It’s really a polar opposite of what players usually face the week before at Kapalua. It reminds me a bit of leaving from Augusta National THE Harbor city in April. Like Harbor Town, Waialae is a coastal, wall-to-wall Bermudagrass course that can be heavily affected by the wind and also features smaller than average sized greens. The forecast calls for typical Hawaii temperatures in the high 70s this week and winds ranging from 10-20 mph. It doesn’t blow brutally, but it’s certainly enough to play a part in this week’s story.

As for skill sets, I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass). I looked at Birdies or Better Gained, Scrambling, Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation Gained, 400-500 yard Par 4s, and Hole Proximity from 125-175 yards.

The course shape is very strong at the Sony Open, meaning that players who tend to do well here do so regularly. Especially when we get a little wind, as we expect this week, we see a lot of the same names and the same types of players populating the Sony Open leaderboards. This also extends to related courses. Shorter, coastal, often windy, Bermudagrass-based golf courses like the aforementioned Harbor Town, home of the RBC Legacy – Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, Webb Simpson – these guys have had great success on both tours. Let’s also add Sea Island (RSM Classic), Colonial BC (Charles Schwab Challenge), and chameleon along the Riviera Maya not far from Cancun, Mexico, which hosted the World Technology Championships from 2007 to 2022.

Ben Griffin (18-1)

2025 was a celebration for Griffin, with three wins and a spot on the US Ryder Cup team. One of those wins came at Colonial. He has also been 12th here at Sony and has finished eighth and 15th previously at the RSM Classic. He ranks particularly high in this field over the last 24 rounds in SG: Approach, SG: Putting, Birdies or Better Gained, Scrambling, and in 400-450 yard Par 4s. He hits form as well, having finished 11-9-12-10-2-1 in his last six starts.

Maverick McNealy (30-1)

McNealy earned his first PGA Tour victory in November of 2024 at the RSM Classic at Sea Island. He was unable to defend the title just a few months ago because he welcomed his first child into the world. I actually quite like this situation, often referred to as the “diaper factor.” We’ve seen golfers achieve great success in the past after having a baby as it often provides new perspective, a sense of calm, happiness and a renewed focus on providing for the family. McNealy also checks a lot of the traditional boxes, having previously finished in the top 10 here, in the top 20 twice at Colonial, in the top 5 twice at Harbor Town and three straight top-12 finishes at El Camaleon.

Chris Kirk (48-1)

The veteran Georgia Bulldog is a classic fit for the Sony Open, having finished in the top 5 here three times in his career. He has multiple top-10 finishes at each of the interconnected courses and has wins at both Sea Island and Colonial. Like Griffin, Kirk also arrives in good form, having finished the 2025 regular season with finishes of 14th, fifth and ninth. Over the past 24 rounds, Kirk has been excellent on the approach, with his wedge game, on Par 4s, and is ranked 12th in the field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass).

Seamus Power (110-1)

I decided to throw a long shot into the mix as well – and maybe someone wants to try this for a top-20 finish or something – but Power checks a lot of the same boxes as the shorter-priced players, he just doesn’t have nearly the same pedigree. He has dealt with nagging injuries. However, as a Las Vegas native, I hear he is feeling completely healthy heading into the new campaign. The Power Tour’s last win came at the Bermuda Championship, another shorter, windswept coastal golf course. This type of track suits his game. He finished 11th in Bermuda two months ago and followed that up with a seventh-place finish at the RSM Classic, where he also finished twice in the top 5. He is very accurate off the tee and excellent with wedges. He has been third here at Sony in the past and has top-10 finishes at Harbor Town and El Camaleon.

Who Chirp Golf players are choosing

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