4 picks that our gambling expert likes

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting. You can follow him on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the Zozo Championship, which starts on Wednesday in Japan. Along with Kannon’s recommended shows, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app featuring Free-To-play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win money and prizes with every round and tournament.

The Fall FedEx Cup moves from the United States to Japan this week for it Zozo Championship at Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan. This will be the sixth edition of Zozo and the fifth time it is held in Narashino. The list of past winners is star-studded and the field this week is the best we’ve seen so far this fall. Collin Morikawa is back to protect his 2023 title.

It was here in 2019 when Tiger Woods won for the 82nd time on the PGA Tour. Patrick Cantlay won in 2020 at Sherwood Country Club in Los Angeles. And then at Narashino, Hideki Matsuyama won the trophy in 2021, Keegan Bradley in 2022 and Morikawa last year.

Joining Morikawa, Xander Schauffele is in the field this week alongside Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im and Sahith Theegala. It is a limited field event with only 78 players participating and there is no 36-hole cut.

There are many 18-hole courses on the property. The tournament will be played using a combination of the King and Queen courses, ultimately joining a par-70 test that will stretch to just under 7,100 yards. The fairways are Zoysiagrass, dog-leg both ways, and are tree-lined, but the rough isn’t quite criminal. The greens are on the smaller side, feature some undulations and are Bentgrass. The layout offers up to five par 3s, three par 5s and 10 par 4s. The par 4s are either very birdie-friendly, measuring between 350-425 yards, or very demanding, measuring 485-500+ yards. The average winning score over the past four editions at Narashino has been less than 16 under par. Here in Las Vegas at the Westgate SuperBook, oddsmaker Jeff Sherman put the winning Over/Under this week at 14.5 under par.

Our handicapping is somewhat limited this week with past editions of the Zozo Championship not fully providing strokes gained data. However, what I have been able to gather is that the hitting and shooting of the ball seem to be at a high level. If you just look at the winners of the most recent past (Morikawa, Bradley and Matsuyama), they are great Total Drivers from the top and some of the best iron players in the game – known as ball-strikers. Second, the available statistics have shown us that winners rank particularly high for Greens in Regulation and Average Putting. I also saw Scrambling this week with smaller than average greens.

As for related courses, I think there are some interesting links this week. I like how the playing requirements are similar to PGA National (Cognizant Classic), The Renaissance Club (Scottish Open) and Silverado in Napa (Procore Championship), as well as Memorial Park in Houston (Houston Open) and Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Classic Mortgage). And then there’s Valhalla (2024 PGA Championship) featuring Zoysiagrass fairways and Bentgrass greens, just like TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson). Zoysiagrass and smaller greens are the recipe at TPC Southwind where former Zozo champion Matsuyama just won last summer.

Beau Hossler (38-1)

No, I won’t try Harry Hall again, although he has been doing quite well, but I will go back to Hossler, who has also been in good form. He was second at Sanderson Farms, 11th the following week in Utah and 23rd last week in Las Vegas. His track record at this course is also excellent, finishing runner-up last year and 16th in 2022. He has plenty of top-25 finishes on related courses, and in this week’s field, Hossler ranks in the top 20 over Last 36 rounds for Scrambling, Greens in Regulation Gained, short par 4s and is seventh for SG: Putting (Bentgrass).

Will Zalatoris (45-1)

This will be the first time we’ve seen Willie Z in two months and I love everything about him. He had that time off to rest and continue to work on his back health — and the last two times we saw him in August, he finished 12th at the FedEx St. Louis Championship. Jude and 13^th next week at the BMW Championship in Colorado. In those two matches, his putting, scrambling and greens in regulation numbers were excellent. He has played here before, finishing 54th in 2021, so he is familiar with the course. Iron play and ball striking have always been his strong suits, and some of his best results have come at TPC Southwind, another course with small greens and Zoysiagrass fairways. We will see. I feel he can have a good week.

JJ Spawn (50-1)

Spaun is another player who has made his living as a ball striker. Over the past 36 rounds, Spaun ranks in the top-8 in the field for SG: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG in Short Par 4s and Greens in Regulation Won. And has appeared here in the past with a sixth-place finish last year and a 25th-place finish in 2022. He finished 26-25-34 in three events this fall and before that, recorded two top-10s to closed in summer. Spaun has done particularly well on some of the associated courses, never missing a cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with finishes of eighth, 10th and 13th – along with a ninth and an 11th – of.^th at the Procore Championship in Napa.

Ryo Hisatsune (100-1)

The Japanese native has played in the tournament for the past three years in a row, and he has gotten progressively better. Hisatsune finished 52nd in his debut in 2021 and has finished 12th and sixth since then. He finished his summer with a third-place finish at the Wyndham Championship and was 25th two weeks ago in Utah. The Zoysiagrass-Bentgrass combination seems to appeal to him as he finished 13th last spring at TPC Craig Ranch and then tied for 18th at Valhalla in the PGA Championship. His ball striking is excellent. Over the past 36 rounds, he ranks 15th in the field for SG: Approach, 17th for SG: Ball Striking and fifth in Greens in Regulation won.

Who are Chirp Golf players picking this week?

This information will be updated as it becomes available.