3 reasons to believe Justin Thomas can get his first win in 2.5 years

Justin Thomas is on the verge of Zozo Championship.

But that is not the question.

The question is: On the verge from what

Is … on the verge of his first win in 2.5 years, breaking through an extended stretch of golf misery after a Winning the PGA Championship in 2022 that looked like it could propel his career into the golf stratosphere?

Or is he … on the verge of another tough loss at Zozo in what could be his last serious start of ’24, extending his winless streak to a third straight season?

We’ll find out the answers to those questions at the end of the night on Saturday on the US East Coast, when Zozo play ends in Japan. But for now, all we know is that two-time winner Thomas is in second place and two shots off the lead with 54 holes heading into Sunday.

So, with a spirit of optimism in mind, we’re counting down three reasons why we think he can do it — and one reason why he might not.

3 reasons why Justin Thomas can win the Zozo Championship

1. The data obtained from his shots is extremely good

Through 54 holes in Japan, Thomas has won more than 10 strokes on the course in strokes gained: tee-to-green (10.1) – that’s the best on the course by a wide margin and a significant increase over Thomas’ own stats in that category throughout the ’24 season (he ranked 82nd in SG: off the tee, and 12th in SG: approach).

When Thomas was at the top of his powers in the 20s and 21s – in the same seasons he briefly reached the ranking of no. 1 in the world and collected enough trophies to build a new house – he was ranked first on the PGA Tour in the tee-to-green category. Now he’s back in that form and on a golf course that looks primed for his ball-striking style.

2. His game has been trending

No, it hasn’t been a streak like we’ve seen in recent years from Thomas, but the last three months of his play leading up to Zozo have featured some of his most inspired golf in recent memory, including a Top 10 -at the Travelers and Tournament Championships.

Add to that the fact that Thomas suffered a demoralizing rejection from the US Presidents Cup team in early September, and you have a recipe for a golfer who is meeting the axes of motivation and recent form.

The only thing left is to put it all together when it counts as a Sunday.

3. He fixed one of his worst stats

Thomas actually had a fairly average statistical season on the PGA Tour in ’24, but one stat saw an extremely sharp decline from his early career success: avoiding bogeys. In ’24, Thomas ranks 78th on the PGA Tour in that statistic, after routinely ranking in the top 20 earlier in his career.

At Zozo, however, he is tied for first in the entire field through 54 holes, with just one bogey to show for his efforts.

Of course, this may not reflect one causal the difference in his approach to avoiding cheaters, but golfers use heaters – and heaters often result in wins!

1 reason why Justin Thomas might not win on Sunday

In the interest of balance, it’s fair to note that while Thomas will have to overcome a familiar foe if he’s to win Sunday’s Zozo: that of last week’s collapse.

JT’s game has been good enough through rounds one, two and three to find himself near or at the top in roughly a dozen events in 2024. He has no wins to show for it, mainly because he has struggled to guard his performance after those high peaks. A loss Sunday for Thomas is likely to look a lot like other losses of the summer, in which blowout holes and murky golf rule over heart-pounding performances earlier this week.

In other words, pay close attention because things can get interesting quickly.